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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd