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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still